Intervening variables are those factors identified in the literature as being related to substance misuse and abuse, including risk and protective factors present in your community. Identifying these factors and prioritizing among them is a critical part of the SPF planning process.
While different criteria can be used to prioritize these variables, communities often consider two in particular when making this decision:
- Importance—the extent to which various intervening variables have the potential to meaningfully impact the problem in question
- Changeability—how easy it would be to change the intervening variable given existing time, resources, and capacity
You may want to select intervening variables that are high in both.
Importance
When weighing the importance of intervening variables, consider the following:
How much does the intervening variable influence the problem?
- Example: If you identified youth prescription opioid consumption as a problem, and the data show that youth are more likely to obtain prescription opioids from peers (social access) than from pharmacies (via a personal script from a doctor), then social access would be considered high in importance, whereas retail access would be considered low.
- Does the intervening variable impact other behavioral health issues or other identified problems?
- Example: A younger age at first prescription is a risk factor for not only initiation into opioid misuse, but also stimulant and tranquilizer misuse.54 Therefore, focusing on this risk factor may impact more than one issue.
- Do the intervening variables directly impact the specific developmental stage of those experiencing the problem?
- Example: For the identified problem of NMUPD among high school-age youth, the risk factor of being a member of a social fraternity or sorority is less important than it would be for college-age populations.
Changeability
When assessing the changeability of a factor, you may want to consider the following:
- Whether the community has the capacity—the readiness and resources—to change a particular intervening variable
- Whether a suitable evidence-based intervention exists that has been shown to impact the intervening variable
- Whether change can be brought about in a reasonable time frame—changing some intervening variables may take too long to be a practical solution
- Whether the changes can be sustained over time
If the community has ample resources and sufficient readiness to address this intervening variable, a suitable evidence-based intervention exists, and sustainable change can occur within a reasonable time frame, then the factor would be considered high in changeability.
If there are not adequate resources or if the community is not ready to address the intervening variable, the changeability of the factor may be low.
Other Considerations
Additional questions you may want to consider when prioritizing intervening variables include:
- Is the intervening variable identified independently by multiple sources?
- How reliable and valid are the data supporting it?
- How actionable is the variable?
- Are other efforts already in place to change the variable?
- Does addressing this intervening variable have the potential for unintended consequences?
- Are data systems in place to effectively evaluate changes in the variable?